IMD forecasts normal monsoon season

India’s weather bureau has provided relief in an already stretched conditions by forecasting a normal rainfall in the ensuing monsoon season starting from June.

On 15th April 2020, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that India will likely have a normal monsoon, with a chance of ‘above normal’ rain in August and September.

The prospect of good agricultural output comes amid almost all parts of the economy, including manufacturing, construction and services, having taken a beating because of the coronavirus pandemic. Robust farm output will help ease the stress in the overall economy.

The four-month monsoon season starting June is crucial for the agrarian economy, as it provides more than 75% of the annual rainfall every year.
Given the normal rainfall forecast, it is likely that the agriculture sector may witness 3% growth.

This could add, nearly 0.5 to 0.6 percentage point growth in gross domestic product (GDP), which is quite significant in light of the bearish forecasts being made by various agencies about the economic growth rate

Meanwhile, the IMD issues a two-stage forecast: the first in April, followed by a more detailed one in the last week of May, which will also illustrate how the monsoon will spread over the country.

The IMD’s confidence stems largely from global weather models pointing to negligible chances of El Nino, a warming of the central equatorial Pacific that’s associated with the drying up of monsoon rain.

The IMD has also officially redefined the definition of what constitutes ‘normal’ rainfall and reduced it by 1 cm to 88 cm.

The June-September rainfall accounts for 75% of the country’s annual rainfall. “Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 100% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%.

Overall this is a big positive for India at a time when the outbreak of carona virus is expected to significantly dent india’s GDP growth in FY21 to record lows of around 1.9%

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